UNIFORMLESS OCCUPATION: BEIJING AND MOSCOW’S NEXT-GENERATION SHADOW ARMIES – PART 19: Shadow War in Africa: The Day China and Russia Will Clash

“The vast territories of Africa are no longer just the arena for local conflicts or Western colonial powers; they have become the secret battleground for the new generation shadow armies of Beijing and Moscow. On one side are Chinese security firms safeguarding billions of dollars in massive infrastructure projects, mineral deposits, and their diaspora ‘quietly but deeply.’ On the other is Russia’s ruthless Africa Corps mechanism, propping up coup-shattered regimes at gunpoint in exchange for seizing the continent’s wealth. These two giant powers, long appearing as complementary models, are rapidly advancing toward an inevitable breaking point where their interests collide. So, when will this quiet war of uniformless soldiers turn into an open clash, and which shadow army will design the future of Africa? In this new chapter of our investigative series, we put Beijing and Moscow’s secret encounter scenarios and the looming shadow war in Africa under the microscope…”

The Private Military and Security Companies (PMSC) sector has experienced monumental growth in recent years, particularly on the African continent. Escalating terrorist threats, civil wars, and systemic instability across the continent, combined with the inadequacy of certain local governments, have whetted the appetite of foreign shadow armies. The two global powers playing the most active and aggressive roles in this arena are China and Russia. However, these two actors deploy diametrically opposed strategies and models on the African stage.

Chinese Investments and the Protection of Economic Fortresses

In contrast to Russia, China’s military-security presence in Africa began much later and has been shaped directly by the drive to protect its massive economic interests. As Africa’s largest trading partner (boasting a trade volume exceeding $261 billion in 2022 alongside billions of dollars in loan burdens), China hosts nearly 1.2 million of its citizens and numerous mining projects across the continent.

Beijing mostly operates on the continent through security firms classified as “Class 2” (Niche resource-providing companies). These firms (such as China Overseas Security Group – COSG, DeWe Security, and HuaXin ZhongAn – HXZA) offer services like risk analysis, site protection, and unarmed/armed escorts. The core characteristics of Chinese PMSCs are:

• State Control and Loyalty: They are not entirely “private”; they maintain organic ties with the Chinese Ministry of Public Security (MPS) and the Communist Party. Their executives and supervisors are invariably of former military (PLA) or police origin.

• Firearm Restrictions: Due to the strict firearms legislation within Chinese domestic law, Chinese personnel are generally prohibited or operating in a gray area regarding carrying weapons abroad; hence, armed protection duties are outsourced to personnel selected from the local population.

• Focus on Economic Infrastructure: These companies cluster in relatively stable economic zones where the Chinese diaspora and mines are densely concentrated, such as Nigeria, South Africa, and East Africa (e.g., bauxite mines in Guinea).

Russian Security Influence and the Regime Protection Package

Russia, on the other hand, is a complete “economic dwarf” compared to China, yet it possesses a model that designs continental politics through asymmetric and hybrid military power. Russia’s Africa strategy relies on offering a direct “security package in exchange for strategic benefits” to countries plagued by instability and crisis. Russian shadow armies protect regimes against internal threats and rebellions, receiving mining concessions and political leverage in return.

Until 2023, the undisputed sole ruler of this model was the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, which operated across a wide spectrum from military operations to troll factories. However, Prigozhin’s mutiny in June 2023 and his subsequent death exposed the fragility of this hybrid structure, prompting the Kremlin to bring the model directly under its own control.

• The Era of Africa Corps: Operating under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense and military intelligence (GRU), the new expeditionary force, Africa Corps, began absorbing Wagner’s operations and military elites on the continent.

• Information Warfare: Russia does not rely solely on armed force; it centralizes anti-Western narratives and executes information manipulation through propaganda agencies like the African Initiative and various cultural associations.

• Operational Capabilities: Russian companies (Redut, Convoy, Patriot, etc.) are directly “Class 3 and Class 4” structures, meaning they possess combat capability, command-and-control, intelligence, and deep operational capacity.

Potential Conflict Zones and Days of Confrontation

While Chinese and Russian shadow armies currently appear as two complementary models in Africa (one protecting economic infrastructure, the other ensuring regime security), this status quo does not guarantee long-term peace. The primary friction points where the two powers could collide include:

1. Mineral and Resource Competition: China’s multibillion-dollar mining investments (e.g., gold and cobalt mines in the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) intersect directly with the operational fields of Russian shadow armies. In fact, strong suspicions persist that Wagner was behind an attack on a Chinese gold mine in the Central African Republic that resulted in the deaths of 9 Chinese nationals.

2. Clash of “Security Provider” Roles: Chinese companies have begun exporting their own security standards to Africa by taking over the training of local security forces (such as the Kenya Railways Police). The collision of Russia’s military training monopoly, executed via its Ministry of Defense, with China’s “smart security” and police training initiatives is becoming inevitable.

3. Sovereignty and Legitimacy Crises: Wanting to avoid diplomatic crises that tarnish its state reputation, China steers clear of high-risk operational zones. However, the aggressive operations conducted by Russia to protect regimes—frequently prone to human rights violations—possess the potential to directly threaten the safety of Chinese investments and logistics lines.

Future Scenarios: Who Will Win?

• Scenario 1: Pragmatic Conflict (Economic Power Buys Security Power): China could reduce its reliance on traditional military companies by expanding its locally established diasporic security networks and its technological risk analysis segment (utilizing surveillance tools from tech giants like Huawei and Hikvision). China’s financial dominance could suppress Russia’s logistical and operational costs, eventually marginalizing the Russian PMSC market.

• Scenario 2: Cyber and Hybrid Convergence: Should Chinese companies begin flexing their firearm restrictions (particularly in maritime security and port protection) and evolve from a niche resource model toward an operational model (Class 3), the intra-African influence wars with Russia’s “Africa Corps” mechanism will be fought “without uniforms,” entirely through the shadow clashes of corporate entities.

In conclusion; while Beijing fortifies bastions with the power of money, Moscow mortgages regimes at the tip of a barrel. The soils of Africa are poised to be the bloodiest witness to the silent but deep influence war waged by these two massive shadow armies.

Editor’s Note: Africa, which has become the epicenter of global power balances, faces an unconventional wave of invasion today. Escalating instabilities across the continent serve as a perfect breeding ground for the new generation shadow-armies deployed by the Beijing and Moscow administrations. On one side, China-based security firms are on the ground to protect billions of dollars in economic investments; on the other, the Russia-controlled Africa-Corps structure stands tall, inheriting the Wagner legacy to directly reinforce regimes.

Replacing traditional militaries, these private military and security companies do not merely provide physical protection; they play a leading role in strategic resource-wars and deepening geopolitical fractures across the continent. Although they initially appear as two parallel PMSC models, conflicting economic and military interests are pushing these two giant powers into an inevitable influence-war. In this chapter of our investigative series, we examine how uniformless soldiers are redesigning the continent and look closely at the secret encounter scenarios of two global actors on African soil. Enjoy the read…

REFERENCE:

Report Title: Russia and Chinese private military and security companies in Africa: two competing models? Authors: Djenabou Cissé, Simon Menet, Marie de Vries (Researchers at the Foundation for Strategic Research)

Publisher: FRS (Fondation pour la recherche stratégique / Foundation for Strategic Research – Paris) Publication Date / No: No. 03/2025 – March 2025

East Turkestan Bulletin News Agency / NEWS CENTER